Pretty tough headline, right? Allow me to qualify it before you go crazy emailing me with profanity-laced tirades. I like Christian Vande Velde, as a rider and as a person. I admire his honesty, dedication, hard work, and team work. Since he was a youngster at US Postal, I have felt he was under-rated by many in the cycling world. To me Vande Velde has as much or more potential than Tom Danielson, yet it is Danielson who has received the majority of the "next big thing" attention over the years.
Today, Vende Velde is over 30 and on the back stretch of his career. He has ridden for the biggest teams in the world (Postal, CSC) and has been a part of many winning efforts over that time. He has rarely had a chance to ride for himself, but when he has he has usually been able to deliver decent results. So far in this year's Tour de France, Vende Velde has ridden very well, and as of stage nine he sat in third place overall, only 44 seconds behind race leader Kim Kirchin and secind place Cadel Evans.
After another solid ride in a hilly Tour stage, Vande Velde revealed in an interview with Frankie Andreau that he would be looking out for himself, with an eye on the overall classification. Some American commentators even went as far as to suggest that he could threaten for the overall title. It was upon hearing this that I, and many others in the cycling world, fell to the ground with uncontrollable laughter.
Let me be very clear about Vande Velde's overall chances in this year's Tour de France: he has a ZERO percent chance of winning the overall title. Further, he also has a ZERO percent chance of making the podium. If that makes me mean or insensitive, so be it. I would sooner assert that Leonardo Piepoli of the Saunier Duvall squad or Filippo Pozzato of Liquigas has a chance at the podium (they do not) than Vande Velde.
Winning the Tour de france is extremely difficult, and it is rare that a rider without amazing climbing talent wins the race. Pierero did in 2006, but that Tour is widely considered inadmissable due to Floyd Landis and his positive dope test. Periero was able to gain a half hour on the field in one of the stages, giving him a shot for the overall. The chances of Vande Velde getting away are nil, and he's not a good enough climber to hang in the steepest mountains. Just watch on stage ten if you don't believe me.
Sure, Vande Velde can hope to go top fifteen, and maybe top ten, but even that is asking a lot. Once the Tour hits the high mountains (today's stage 10), the Garmin rider will begin to lose major chunks of time. Unfortunately, while he is a good climber, Vande Velde will be riding against great climbers, riders capable of fearsome accelerations on the steepest mountain ramps. Instead of talking about the overall, Vande Velde would be better served to go stage hunting like other talented riders in the field. He'll have much better luck trying for a stage than the overall. If he wants to win a stage race, Christian should target next year's Paris-Nice, a much more attainable target.
Monday, July 14, 2008
Christian Vande Velde Targets Tour de France Overall, Cycling World Falls on Floor Laughing
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16 comments:
"Sure, Vande Velde can hope to go top fifteen, and maybe top ten, but even that is asking a lot. Once the Tour hits the high mountains (today's stage 10), the Garmin rider will begin to lose major chunks of time. "
How's the crow tasting? Vandevelde looked just as good as those "great climbers".
He seemed to hang decently enough today.
i think you should retract your post. your analysis was obviously flawed. vande velde hung with evans, sastre and menchov up both stage 10 HC climbs.
he's not a good enough climber to hang in the steepest mountains. Just watch on stage ten if you don't believe me.
Almost forgot... Are you going to apologize to Christian for laughing at him? I hope people don't laugh at you when they don't give you a shot before you've been given a chance...
Um, I didn't see him lose any time today. Maybe now Vande Velde is laughing at you.
Good fun reading the post AFTER stage 10. There's much to learn yet as we're only half way through the tour, but we know one thing already. You were wrong. Vande Velde was extremely solid today. He's a contender. Admit it.
http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2008/tour08/?id=/riders/2008/interviews/tour08_christian_vande_velde
on the floor laughing again today?
Oops.
Hey Briggs!
I so hope you're smiling at missing the punch line! The man has it in him and his going to kick some butt at this year's Tour!
I took some slack when I said C was going to get a top 10 and suddenly the slack is all smiles! :-)
Being a Friendly Fan of C's for years, today was just amazing to watch. To see him truly come out of old roles and embrace the new ones is a sweet treat to sit back and enjoy every minute of.
C changed his mind set last Fall (after burying himself to help get Carlos up on the Vuelta Podium) to begin concentrating on his talents again. Having him here in Chicago I know the weather he was out training in this winter and it was fun to watch him rediscover himself. The hottest thing about him - his confidence!
Wishing him all the best in the coming days and climbs ahead. 3rd overall right now and a solid opportunity to be a key contender all the way to Paris. I'm glued and cheering everyday for him and I hope others take note of a true American talent that believes what so many of us have for years - he CAN do it! Go C!!!
So much for that argument. He was able to hang on. "Major Contender" Balaverde got dropped. Seeing how he time trials, I doubt he's going to make up that time in the Alps.
I think you underestimate CVV. I don't think he will win the overall, but the podium is a definite possibility.
"Once the Tour hits the high mountains (today's stage 10), the Garmin rider will begin to lose major chunks of time." Who's on the floor laughing now.
wow. what short-sighted analysis. garmin-chipotle is putting on a great show. they will not likely factor in the final GC, but they will walk away having showed well thus far.
I think we're all falling on the floor laughing at YOU. LOL
I'm going to bookmark this page so Christian can see it when he gets home...
Christian was amazing in Stage 10, he rode in right with Evans in Stage 11, and I'm going to be cheering for him all the way. I don't know if Vandevelde is laughing at you, but I'm certainly having a good chuckle.
What an idiotic snobbish comment about Vandevelde. Not only did he NOT loose time, he made up six seconds you moron.
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