100th Giro d'Italia's First Mountain Stage Forecasts Epic Battles to Come

The centenary Giro d'Italia headed into the Dolomites today on only the 4th of 20 stages. An aggressive and unconventional parcours for the 100th edition continiued today, puttin the GC favorites front and center, and affording an opportunity to see who is going well and who still has some work left to do. The relatively easy climb that finished the day in San Martino di Castrozza didn't produce huge time gaps, but nevertheless there were still many significant happenings among the GC contenders on the day.

Danilo Di Luca had the best turn of speed down the stretch, and was able to take top honors on the stage, a nice consolation prize for a man hoping to contend for the overall. Di Luca simply is not a great time trialist though, and he'll likely be eliminated from the GC picture on stage twelve's 60-plus kilometer time trial. This stage though will show him that he has the form to try his hand in the mountains for more stage wins and a possible try for the climber's classification.

Ivan Basso and his Liquigas team were at the front of the race for it's most important moments, and Basso looked great throughout the day. He is living up to his favorite status, at least for now. The same can be said for his teammate Franco Pellizotti, who took third place on the stage and is well positioned in the GC.

Columbia, as they have done all season, are contending on all fronts. From the season's early stage races to the classics and now the year's first grand tour, Columbia always seems to have a few key hands to play at each race, and the Giro is more of the same for Bob Stapleton's team. Mick Rogers looked confortable all day long, and the emergence of Thomas Lovkwist as a strong support man in the mountins heightens Rogers' status as a man to watch for the overall. 

Saxo Bank has looked lost thus far in the Giro, after a lackluster TTT and now an anonymous first mountain stage. Their best finisher on today's stage was Lars Bak, who could manage only 38th place, coming in about a minute behind Di Luca. Meanwhile ex-Saxo rider and now Cervelo TestTeam captain Carlos Sastre finished at the back the first main group, as he waits for the perfect stage to attack. Saxo is obviously putting most of the energy into the Tour de France, where they'll hope that one of the Schleck brothers can carry the day. For now though, they have been less powerful than they usually are at a major stage race.

Denis Menchov looks good, as he too finished with the lead group. He'll be dangerous throughout the event. Ditto Levi Leipheimer, who looks more like a team leader every day. His teammate Lance Armstrong meanwhile was gapped on the finish and lost 15 seconds, but it is too early yet to tell whether he is good enough to ride at the front. With such a long time trial on stage 12, he could presumably trail some of the specialists by a minute or more and still ride into the lead of the event with a vintage Armstrong ride against the clock. 

Damiano Cunego is, for now, still a favorite for the overall. In fact, he did not contest the finish along side Di Luca, which may signal that he is saving himself for the more decisive moments of the Giro in the coming days. The finish was suited to his characteristics, but yet he chose not to attack. Perhaps Cunego is waiting to show his strong form when his adversaries are the most vulnerable in the high mountains?

Stefano Garzelli lost an opportunity to win a stage today on a course well-suited to his riding style. He'll probably have one or two more chances at a stage win, but this one will grate on him if he fails to position himself for the win in the coming days and weeks.

Stage five will surely see some big gaps between the GC riders, as the final climb of the day, a 25k slog to Alpe di Siusi, kicks up enough to offer the climbers a chance to gain some time on their rivals. The true mountain goats will be out for this stage, with riders like Gilberto Simoni, Basso, and Juan Mauricio Solar leading the way. Riders like Di Luca, Cunego and Garzelli meanwhile will have to hope to limit their losses on the steep Dolomiti climbs. 

Tactics could play a big factor on the day as well, as several teams (Astana, Liquigas, High Road) have two riders that are in the GC hunt. Perhaps a second-tier favorite like Lovkwist or Pellizotti can surprise the field as the big favorites watch each other.