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Sunday, June 28, 2009

Keeping Time: Behind Contador, a Slew of Tour de France Contenders Lining Up

Alberto Contador is without a doubt the number one favorite for the upcoming Tour de France. The recent winner of the Spanish time trial championships seems poised to take his second Tour de France overall, but there are a host of others that could contend for the overall. In recent years it seems as though there have been more "favorites" heading into the Tour than there were in the 80's and 90's. So let's get on with it, the other big contenders for the 2009 Tour.

Lance Armstrong, although Contador's teammate, seems like a top contender for the Tour despite being away from the professional side of the sport for more than three years. He finally notched a win at the recent Nevada City Classic (despite racing against a very weak field) and many in the know say he is ready to shock the world in a few days time. He'll likely have more than half the Astana team to support him should things get dicey between he and Contador, and an 8th title, for now at least, still seems within his grasp.

Denis Menchov ripped through the Giro d'Italia like he owned it. After taking the jersey from Danilo Di Luca in stage 12 during the 60+ kilometer time trial, Menchov never looked back and wore pink to the line in Rome. To do the double is nearly unheard of in the modern era, but Menchov has as good a chance as any of the other double winners from the past. A solid team will support the Russian as he tries to do the impossible for his Rabobank team.

Cadel Evans returns to the Tour to once again try for the top step of the podium, but to all eyes it looks as though his time may have passed him by. He brings a competent Silence-Lotto team to the start line in Monaco, but if he takes yellow early he'll find it hard to control the peloton with his Lotto team. Like in past editions of the Tour, Evans will follow wheels, hope for amazing results in the time trials, and a bit of luck in between. As has been the case in years past, he'll likely come close but fall a bit short of victory by the time the three week tour is over.

Carlos Sastre, despite being the defending Tour de France champ, has received very little respect from the cycling public for the 2009 edition of the Tour de France. He'll head a tough yet new Cervelo TestTeam squad looking to make waves with the small, quiet Spaniard. Thor Hushovd will be contending for the green jersey while Sastre goes for yellow, and the dual attack could see the team stretched a bit thin. Still, Sastre is great in the high mountinas and is the defending champion after all. He shouldn't be counted out.

Andy Schleck took his beggest win a few months ago at Liege-Bastogne-Liege and he'll be a protected rider along with his brother frank for the Tour, but he has yet to prove he can carry his weight in a grand tour. His 2nd place overall finish in the 2006 Giro seems like it was a very long time ago, and without a solid time trial he'll likely be left behind in the GC hunt. Still, as an explosive climber on a strong team, Andy may be able to surprise everyone and contend for the overall prize.

Andy's brother Frank Schleck also is not an excellent time trialist, and he may end up taking a back seat to his brother for leadership of the Saxo Bank team. He has been injured throughout the 2009 season, and he comes into the Tour as an unknown quantity. In 2008, Carlos Sastre came in under the radar and won for Bjarne Riis' team. Could 2009 be Frank's turn?

Christian Vande Velde will arrive at the Tour with few racing kilometers in his legs after a tough crash at the Giro d'Italia. The American is surely Garmin's best hope, but how well he'll go after such an up and down early season is anyone's guess. He'll get decent team support from his Garmin mates, but winning this year's event likely won't happen. More realistic is a top ten and a stage win, which would be a massive result considering his tough luck thus far in 2009.

Roman Kreuziger and Vincenzo Nibali will co-captain the Liquigas squad at the Tour, but both seem to realize that they are at least one year away from trying for the overall win. Both riders will look to gain more experience in the biggest bike rac ein the world, while hoping for a top ten placing and a stage win. If each could win a stage the 2009 Tour will have been considered a smashing success for the Liquigas team.


The list of favorites for this year's Tour de France reads as a virtual who's who of big time cycling. With the return of Lance Armstrong to the professional peloton, the attention that this year's race will receive from the International press should be astronomical. For the firs time since Armstrong's last participation in the Tour in 2005, the way each rider handles the intense media pressure will factor largely into who emerges as the eventual 2009 champion. Some of the riders above have handles that pressure with aplomb, while others are still learning how to navigate the murky waters of the hungry media swarm. In less than a week time we'll all begin to understand who the real front runners for the Tour are, and who would have been better off staying at home.

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