The Nitty Gritty: Tour de France Stage 7 Means Major GC Shakeup for Top Contenders as Race Hits High Mountains

As the 2009 Tour de France prepares to head into the high mountains for the first time tomorrow in stage 7, the Astana cycling team currently holds the GC in a stranglehold with four of the top five spots. Behind a blistering team time trial and tactical savvy by Lance Armstrong himself, "Big Tex" finds himself the best placed of the GC riders, even among his own team. Stage 7 will take Armstrong and the rest of the overall hopefuls to their first summit finish at the top of Arcalis, and a major shifting in the GC is expected to play out on the roads ahead of more hills over the weekend.

Much has already been made about the internal duel on the Astana team, but little attention has been paid to the other top contenders in the race. Some of the overall favorites are already too far behind to catch up (Mick Rogers, Denis Menchov), but there are still several riders in with a chance to crack the Astana juggernaut. Ahead of the first big mountain test of the 2009 Tour, let's examine the remaining contenders and their chances at knocking Astana off its lofty perch at the top of the classification.

Strictly in terms of total time deficits, it is the American Christian Vande Velde who is the best placed GC hopeful not on the Astana team. Vande Velde has had a tough season thus far in 2009, and his Tour form is a huge question mark. Not usually known as an attacker, expect Vande Velde to follow wheels for stage 7, which will probably turn out to be a smart tactic. The Garmin leader will hope that Contador and Armstrong tire each other out, giving him a chance later in the race to shine. Tomorrow though will likely be about limiting his losses, as Vande Velde looks to not only find his form, but also his confidence ahead of the last half of the Tour de France.

At only 1:31 off Fabian Cancellara's leading pace sits young Roman Kreuziger, the shining star of the Liquigas team. Kreuziger has a white jersey already to his credit from the 2008 Tour, but as of yet has not proven himself capable of staying with the top climbing guns in the high mountains of a grand tour. He'll get his chance for stage 7 though, and as an inexperienced youngster he too will likely follow wheels instead of choosing to attack. Still, if he has the legs expect to see Roman light up the field in hopes of taking time away from his rivals early in the Tour.

Next up on the GC scene is Kreuziger's teammate Vincenzo Nibali, who sits 1:36 down on the GC. Nibali like Kreuziger is an unproven commodity in a grand tour, but the Italian will be keen to show his mettle as the co-captain of the Liquigas team. Nibali talked tough about a possible top ten finish at the Tour before it started, and if he is to make good on his promise he'll need to ride well in stage 7. Between he and Kreuziger, Nibali and his Liquigas team could create headaches for Astana and others for the remainder of the Tour . . . providing they don't explode on stage 7.

Saxo-Bank's young climber Andy Schleck came into the Tour as a hot favorite, and at only 1:41 down he is still in with a big chance at glory. The problem though for the Luxembourg hero is that he is weaker in the time trial. Therefore, he has to maximize his success in the mountains. Unlike some of the other GC hopes, Schleck (and his brother Frank, 2:17 down) must attack on the summit stages. This puts pressure on the youngster, and if he can't create a gap to the Astana four and his other rivals he won't even make the podium. Stage 7 is hugely important for Andy Schleck, and unless he takes at least thirty seconds away from his rivals the stage will be deemed as a failure for Bjarne Riis' new grand tour charge.

Kim Kirchin is now Columbia-HTC's best hope for overall victory for this year's Tour after Mick Rogers lost minutes on stage 6 after a crash. His teammate Tony Martin is better placed at this point, but Martin needs more experience before he can be considered a top contender. Kirchin though is a solid all-arounder, even though he sometimes falters on long tough mountain stages. 2009 is Kirchin's chance to show he belongs among the other grand tour GC heavies, and because he is such a great time traialist he can afford to ride defensively in the mountains, at least initially. He'll hope to finish among the leaders in stage 7 with an eye on the individual time trial later in the Tour.

2008 defending Tour champion Carlos Sastre, a big pre-race favorite, at 2:44 off the leader is not out of the hunt yet, but like the Schlecks he needs to take time on the mountain stages as his time trialing is not as strong as the Astana four. Realistically, it is unlikely that all four Astana riders will crack, so Sastre has probably already seen his Tour hopes evaporate even before the race headed into the mountains. Still, Sastre is a fighter and he won;t give up. Expect the small Spaniard to climb will in stage 7, with an outside chance at the win. If he took a handful of seconds back it wouldn't be a surprise either.

Cadel Evans, like Sastre, has probably already lost his chance at winning the 2009 Tour. He is 2:59 back on the GC, riding with a weak team, and the Aussie is not known as an attacker. Like always, expect that Cadel will follow the leaders to the top of the summit finish. Unlike in previous editions though, he won;t be able even to hope to bring back enough time on Astana in the individual time trial. perhaps being so far down in the GC will bring out the killer instinct in Cadel, and we'll be treated to an ultra-rare attack in stage 7. Doubtful though.

Due to the perfect tactical racing of the Astana team and their raw talent in the time trial discipline, many of the GC hopefuls are already on their heels looking to recover from the series of body blows dealt to them by Armstrong and his team. The Tour is a strange animal and anything can happen, but the likelihood that both Armstrong and Contador will crack is unlikely. Instead, the GC hopefuls will have to take things day by day, trying to gain time where they can and taking the Tour one day at a time. Meanwhile, Armstrong and Contador will likely attack each other on stage 7, as each attempts to wrestle control of the Astana team away from the other. Stage 7, like the entire 2009 Tour de France thus far, should be nothing short of amazing.