Now or Never: For Tour de France GC Hopefuls, the Time is Now to Attack Astana

The Astana cycling team has controlled the GC picture at the Tour de France behind a combination of great teamwork (their winning performance in the team time trial) and savvy individual performances (Armstrong's escape in stage three, Contador's attack in stage 7). But as the Tour de France heads into its decisive last half, the Astana team seems ripe for the taking after star domestique Levi Leipheimer abandoned after breaking his wrist on stage 12.

Astana still has significant fire power left to defend against attacks, but they can't mark every attacker. And with stalwart support rider Chris Horner on the sidelines after not being selected to ride the event by team management, Astana will be stretched when the real mountains start on stage 15. For riders like Andy and Frank Schleck, Cadel Evans, Roman Kreuziger and Vincenzo Nibali, Denis Menchov, Christian Vande Velde, and Carlos Sastre, the time to attack is now, when Astana is weakened and vulnerable.

If they are smart, the other GC hopefuls will take turns attacking Astana stage by stage. First one of the Schleck's, then a Liquigas rider, then Menchov or Evans and so on. Astana is strong and tactically astute, but even the Kazakh super team can mark only so many attacks. Eventually, with constant concerted accelerations, one of the above riders will find themselves with a gap on the Astana team. Presuming this tactic is employed on every tough stage from here until the end of the Tour, it will be very difficult for Astana to maintain control at the top of the GC.

The question now though is will they do it? Will each of these team leaders be willing to align themselves, if only temporarily, with each other in hopes of thwarting the Armstrong-Contador duo? Or will they turn on each other, making Astana's job that much easier? It would seem an easy decision to form a united front against Astana, but cycling tactics are often strange and hard to understand. Secret alliances are often formed ahead of a given stage, and to assume that Armstrong wouldn't be in the ears of the other top GC riders would be obtuse. He understands that to win the Tour he'll need allies outside of his own team, and aligning with a given rider in hopes of putting them on the podium is a distinct possibility for Armstrong over the next stages.

For Contador meanwhile, it will be a search among his countrymen to decide who will assist him when the going gets tough. The Caisse d'Epargne squad is filled with talented Spanish climbers, and providing that none of them vault toward the top of the GC it wouldn't be a surprise to see the black and red team support Contador in his quest for a second Tour title. Other possible riders that may choose to help Contador include Quick Step's Carlos Barredo, a serviceable climber himself, and perhaps some of the basque Euskaltel-Euskadi riders. They'll be looking to bring Egoi Martinez to Paris as the mountain's classification champion, and riding tempo for Contador could help Martinez's cause, allowing him to follow the wheel of one of the best climbers in the world when the slopes are the steepest.

Astana, and Lance Armstrong in particular, are known for their tactical savvy. After all, they came to the Giro last year on short notice and an less than perfect Contador was still able to win the Maglia Rosa behind intelligent riding and solid team support throughout the three week stage race. Armstrong too has won even when things weren't going his way, as evidenced by his astounding fifth straight win at the Tour back in 2003.