Brad Wiggins: The Real 2012 Pre-Tour de France Favorite Looking Strong for July

The "experts" have Cadel Evans as the odds on favorite to win this year's Tour de France. Don't believe the hype. From the beginning of this season, it has been Brad Wiggins, not Cadel Evans, who has looked like the favorite for yellow in France in July. Currently lighting up the roadway at the Tour of Romandie, Wiggins looks extremely strong as the time draws nearer to the Grand Boucle.

Not only does Wiggins look strong individually, but his Sky teammates too seem to be primed to hit top form come summer. Michael Rogers is back after an abysmal 2011. Richie Porte is coming along nicely. Thomas Lovkwist is ticking over the pedals. Chris Froome, though sick, is on the upswing. And on and on. The only thing that seemingly could derail Wiggins' shot at the Tour overall is the presence of Mark Cavendish, who will also be a protected rider at the Tour.

So what is Sky management to do? They finally managed to sign Cavendish after the demise of the HTC team last year, and England's fastest cyclist will expect nothing more than full support come Tour time. However, this year is unique in that the Olympics happen just a week after the conclusion of the Tour. Cavendish has already gone on record as saying he will look to ride the entire Tour, but is that to be believed? Assuming Cavendish has the green jersey heading into the final week it is possible that he would choose to ride all the way to Paris. However, if he is out of the running for green are we truly to believe that he'll ride the entire Tour? More likely is he takes 3 to 5 stage wins over the first two weeks and then bows out, letting Wiggins have his day.

Whether Cavendish rides the entire Tour or not is almost moot for Wiggins. The Brit is absolutely flying thus far in 2012, and all the pieces seem to be in place for him to take top honors in France this year. He seems to have marshalled both his mind and body, and seems more prepared than ever for the rigours of the Tour. Now he just needs to stay upright and out of trouble for the next two months.

As this year's tour starts with a 6 kilometer prologue, Wiggins could presumably be in yellow after day one. This could present a problem as it would tax his team early, forcing them to defend attacks from wire to wire. If he can manage to avoid taking the yellow jersey until the first time trial in stage nine, his team will be far fresher for the back half of the race.

The real decider for this year's Tour though will be the final time trial on stage 19, a 52 kilometer test on mostly flat roads. The only person who will be able to challenge Wiggins on the course is Cadel Evans, but with a weaker team and a less than ideal run-up to July, who knows how the defending champion will fare in the high mountains, where he could find himself isolated against the Sky juggernaut? One thing is for sure for Brad Wiggins: If he can't manage to win this year's Tour, he probably never will. With so many kilometers of time trialing and a rock-solid team behind him, 2012 looks more than ever to be "the year" for Wiggins to break through at the biggest bike race in the world.

Cycling "a la turka"

Still baffled by Maxim Iglinskiy winning Liege-Bastogne-Liege (lucky for me Briggs was available to write a complete recap of Ardennes Classics 2012) I turned to a relaxing line of cycling. That is I started to watch Tour of Turkey. A few years back it was all about the scenery, with second rate teams and empty streets. I enjoyed the sea, the roman stuff, the spectacular resorts.

Now Tour of Turkey (ahem Presidential Cycling Tour of Turkey) is almost sure to get a World Tour spot (rumours say 2014). They have an incredible line-up this year (Astana, GreenEdge, Omega Pharma QuickStep, Rabobank, Katusha, Lotto and so on), the scenery is still amazing and you must love it when Greipel the Gorilla is presented with a bunch of bananas after claiming a stage win.

It all comes down to tourism. Tourism brings big bucks, cycling is a sport that attracts audience on Eurosport - the panEuropean sports channel. So it makes sense to have a cycling tour showing of your ... stuff. There are still some "a la turka" elements, like government orchestrated fan groups or the traffic jam at yesterday's summit finish. But all in all it's coming along nicely.

The edgy part

Gabrovsky wins, tour director cheers

Gabrovsky (bulgarian, Konya Torku Seker Spor) won in Elmali (turkish Alpe d'Huez). This guy was big in the Cycling Tour of Bulgaria aka the last place on Earth where antidoping in cycling doesn't apply. Or so they say. Ongoing joke "he ate radioactive cucumbers" - knowing that Bulgaria had a dodgy nuclear power plant and the country is famous for cucumbers.

And Romanian cyclist Alex Ciocan, commentator for Eurosport Romania now, explained how the Turkish federation managed to qualify cyclists for the London Olympic road race event. They would stage several competitions and invite lame teams so that the local boys can grab points. Not nice but effective.

2012 Amstel Gold Race, Fleche Wallonne and Liege-Bastogne-Liege Final Thoughts

It was one hell of a hilly classics season. Three new winners, tons of drama throughout and plenty of twists and turns along the way. My thoughts on a unique week of bike racing.

Both Enrico Gasparotto and Maxim Iglinsky win their first classics in the colors of Astana. Nice rides by both as tactically they were on top of their games. That said, their results must raise red flags as Astana is not known for being a clean team. Sad to point out the negative, but remember there are more than 100 variants of undetectable EPO out there for riders to use without being caught. And I won't even mention possible bribes lobbed at testers. Just saying . . .

Joaquin "Purito" Rodriguez bags his first classic and gets the monkey off his back. A nice win for sure, but don't expect the tiny Spaniard to come onto next year's classics season and dominate. He needs a specific set of circumstances to win a race, and in most instances that won't happen. Still, a nice win for him at the Fleche.

During his time with Andy and Frank Schleck, Fabian Cancellara, Jakob Fuglsang and more, Bjarne Riis' teams racked up wins video game style, making it look easy. Today though it is a different story for those riders, as things have not been the same for them since leaving the Danish director. Cancellara is somewhat taken out of the equation due to his crash at the Tour of Flanders, but the Schlecks just don't seem as strong as in years past. Johann Bruyneel, the Evil Emperor of pro cycling, has of yet not been able to unlock the potential within his powerful Nissan-Radioshack team. Hopefully things change with the approach of the grand tour season.

Like Nissan-Radioshack, Rabobank had a forgettable spring classics campaign, highlighted by the fact that their team leader Robert Gesink seems far from his best as we head into the mid-point of the year. Gesink is returning from a badly broken leg, and it goes to show that the healing process when coming back from injury is largely unpredictable. Gesink next heads to the Tour of California, where he'll look to get back on track. Kudos to Gesink's teammate Bauke Mollema, who has shown that he will be option 1A going forward for the Rabobank team.

Oscar Freire didn't bag a win during the classics season,but man did he ride his tail off. The veteran was at the front in all the races he entered, and he seems as strong as ever as he continues he storied career. Providing he doesn't get injured the rest of the year, Freire will be back to race again in 2013 regardless of whether he wins a fourth world title or not.

From Danilo Di Luca to Alejandro Valverde to Michele Scarponi, the old guard of dopers just isn't measuring up these days. Scarponi should be considered the best of the three mentioned, and he'll have a chance at glory at the Giro to defend his default title from 2011. For Di Luca, it is game over. He can't even contend in minor races like Trentino, where he was 20 minutes off the pace. He'll never be the same rider again, and clearly had no business being a protagonist throughout his career. Valverde meanwhile has been far less explosive than in years past. He looks human, a shell of the threat he used to be.

Their win at the Omloop Het Niewsblad aside, the Garmin team underwhelmed during the classics season. Tyler Farrar was almost completely MIA, while Ryder Hesjedal rode strong but not strong enough on the hills. Irishman Dan Martin too rode respectably, but too often the Garmin team seemed outgunned by the competition.

Phillipe Gilbert will not repeat his 2011 season of legend. In fact, he'll be lucky to bag 5 wins before the end of the year. And he can forget about London's Olympics, as he'll surely be supporting Tom Boonen.

Years from now, few people will remember Vincenzo Nibali's strong rides at Milan-San Remo and Liege-Bastogne-Liege, but they should. The Italian rode like an old schooler throughout the spring, boldly reaching for victory with aggressive racing. His grinta will serve him well in future years, and it is a matter of time before he claims a monument. Also, he should be the #1 favorite for this year's Giro.

Sky pro cycling and Saxo Bank are battling for most pathetic ProTeam 2012. Who will win the prize?

Damiano Cunego crashes at the Amstel Gold and then skips the Fleche. He wins a stage at the 2nd tier Giro di Trentino and then deflates at Liege. Overall, a poor spring for the veteran Italian.

Sammy Sanchez seemed to be poised to take at least one win in the three hilly classics. He gets none. The Spanish Enigma continues.

Jelle Vandendert is borderline elite after coming out of nowhere at last year's Tour. He should be a co-leader at the Tour this year, as he has shown that he can stay with the best in the world. Like Nibali, it seems only a matter of time before he takes a big time classic.

Liege-Bastogne-Liege 2012: The Finale of the Spring Classics Season

Liege-Bastogne-Liege will close out the spring classics season this Sunday. The world's oldest one day bike race, this year's LBL features multiple contenders that head to Belgiam looking to add La Doyenne to their palmares. A few things to be aware of when watching on Sunday . . .

It's now or never for Philippe Gilbert. Last year's biggest sensation just hasn't been up to snuff thus far in 2012. A lackluster classics campaign saw Gilbert shelled on the cobbles, as Tom Boonen laid waste to Gilbert and the rest of the pro cycling field. The Amstel and Fleche were a bit kinder to Gilbert, but he still seems to lack that final punch to make the difference for victory. At Liege he'll have one final shot to redeem his early season before he begins preparation for the grand tour season. Lacking Cadel Evans' support at Liege will sting though, and a podium is probably as far as Gilbert goes at LBL this year.

Radioshack-Nissan fields a strong line up for Sunday, but can they get it done? Thus far results have been hard to come by for Johan Bruyneel's team, as bad luck and circumstance have worked against them all year. As Andy Schleck whines about other team's tactics, and his brother Frank continues to look for his form of old, the Radioshack-Nissan team appears, at best, as an outsider for victory. Perhaps veteran Chris Horner can take up the reigns and put in a good showing?

Enrico Gasparotto, by virtue of his Amstel victory last week, and Joaquin Rodriguez as this past Wednesday's Fleche winner, both should be considered outsiders for victory at LBL. However, La Doyenne is a very different race from Amstel and Fleche, and more likely is the two won't have the motivation required to keep pace in the closing kilometers. That said, of the two it is definitely Rodriguez who is in with the better chance.

One of these years Vincenzo Nibali is going to win a hilly classic. Only 27, he is still not at his prime. Still, he has strong tactical awareness and the experience to win Liege. Now all he needs are the legs and a bit of luck.

Team Sky will support Rigoberto Uran at Liege. On paper, they seem to have one of the weakest teams in the race.

Since his surprise win at Milan-San Remo, Simon Gerrans has been quiet. Can he ratchet things back up at LBL? Don't count on it, but expect a strong ride from Michael Albasini after his strong Fleche showing.

Sammy Sanchez headed into the Ardennes on cracking form, but thus far has not been able to find the strength for victory. However, the defending Olympic road race champion always seems to have the goods when Liege rolls around, and if he can get to the finish in a group of 3 to 5, his sprint is among the best of the one day climbing specialists.

Alejandro Valverde needs a strong ride to dispel the sentiment that he'll never return to his pre-suspension form. These days, he looks just a little better than Danilo Di Luca.

Robert Gesink's season has been a disaster thus far. He has been dropped early and often in most of the races he has lined up for, and for his morale he needs at least a top 20 result at Liege. Increasingly, it seems as though Gesink has the talent, but not the head, to battle for elite status.

Lampre's Damiano Cunego looks ideally positioned for a podium placing, he has been trending upward all spring, and certainly has the required experience to be a contender at this year's race. Michele Scarponi should provide great support to Cunego until the decisive moment of the race, and like Sanchez Cunego has a decent sprint for a climber.

Like Sky, the Garmin lineup just isn't that impressive. Ryder Hesjedal put on a good show at the Fleche, but does anyone really believe he can be amongst the leaders at Liege? That leaves the Irishman Dan Martin, who has been good but not great thus far. Like all classics, LBL requires greatness from the victor. Martin just doesn't seem to be there yet.

Jelle Vanendert of the Lotto team has been up toward the top of the results sheet all week, but has yet to find himself first to the line. I think that continues at Liege, where he'll ride well but will lack that extra bit to put him on the top step of the podium.

Team Saxo Bank looks like a club team without Contador. They have gotten their doors blown off thus far and that should continue at Liege. It would be amazing if they put even one rider in the top 30.

Cunego Wins in Spring, But It's Not A Classic

Damiano Cunego won his first race of the 2012 season at the Giro di Trentino on Wednesday, showing strong early season form ahead of his biggest 2012 target, May's Giro d'Italia. The Lampre veteran was set up perfectly by his other teammates, namely Michele Scarponi, and added some much needed confidence with his victory.

Cunego decided to skip La Fleche Wallonne in favor of preparing ahead of Liege-Bastogne-Liege, where he'll now line up as one of the top contenders. whether he'll finally be able to unlock the winning combination in the world's oldest classic is yet to be determined.

Like or hate Cunego, his career arc has been both unique, confusing, disappointing and electrifying over the course of the last decade plus. Beginning his career as a grand tour winner, Cunego had several down years before getting back in the mix the last few years. He has classics wins at the Amstel Gold and Tour of Lombardy on his palmares from past seasons, and a win at Liege would go a long way toward further cementing his legend in Italian cycling lore.

Having finished in the top five twice at Fleche Wallonne in the past though makes his absence from this year's race puzzling. He'll need a strong showing at Liege to prevent criticism regarding his skipping of the Fleche. Unfortunately for Cunego however, he'll face incredibly tough competition in the final hilly classic.

Now in his 30's Damiano Cunego is no longer considered a young rider. He has crossed over into veteran status and with that comes the realization that his time chasing top results is dwindling. With Scarponi flying the grand tour flag as team leader, Cunego finds himself in the unfamiliar role of super domestique and stage hunter. He should provide excellent support for Scarponi in the mountains while looking for a chance to sneak away under the right circumstances. To think though that he has any chance of winning the overall title at the Giro is unrealistic.

Assuming he stays healthy and motivated, Cunego can expect to be highly competitive for at least another five seasons. If he can add between three and five classics between now and then, he'll go down in history as one of the best all-around riders of his generation. If however he fails to ever break through at another classic (not likely), he'll  be remembered as a good, not great cyclist.

"White Horse" Rodriguez takes Fleche Wallonne

Joaquim Rodriguez wins his first classic

Fleche Wallonne 2012 had a big favourite, namely Joaquim Rodriguez. Everybody said he'll notch a classic on his belt. Philippe Gilbert, Jelle Vanendert and Enrico Gasparotto said in pre-race interviews that the Spaniard was the man to beat. 

Normally a rider with remote chances of winning is a "dark horse". Rodriguez was everybody's top pick, hence the "white horse" pun. And he delivered the goods, leaving Michael Albasini (GreenEdge, what a season for him and his team so far), Philippe Gilbert (BMC) and Jelle Vanendert (Lotto) trailing by 4 seconds with an impressive burst of energy on THE WALL Mur de Huy. After finishing second in 2010 and 2011 (+previous runner-up in Amstel Gold Race and Liege-Bastogne-Liege) it was time for a 1st place.

La Fleche Wallonne is the poorest of the classics, always being won in the final 1.3 km and all. They seem to coast along waiting for the final climb. Only bad luck can sort the men from the boys till THE WALL (Frank Schleck puncturing with 15 km remaining ... auch !) And then Mur de Huy comes and Oh My GOD ! It is indeed an epic climb and rightly titled THE WALL.

My podium pick was off. Was I the only one thinking Rodriguez won't win ? :D Anyway my "dark horse" Romain Bardet (AG2R) finished a solid 29. Remember he is only 21 (!) and this is his first season as a professional rider. One rider to keep in mind for future classics. Maybe even for next weeks' Liege-Bastogne-Liege ...

You can also check out the VeloVoices review of Fleche Wallonne 2012.

photo source

Race results (link for FULL results)

1. Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha)

2. Michael Albasini (GreenEdge) +4

3. Philippe Gilbert (BMC) +4

4. Jelle Vanendert (Lotto) +4

5. Robert Kiserlovski (Astana) +7

6. Daniel Martin (Garmin) +9

7. Bauke Mollema (Rabobank) +9

8. Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas) +9

9. Diego Ulissi (Lampre) +9

10. Jurgen van den Broeck (Lotto) +11

La Fleche Wallonne 2012 - short preview

History

First edition held in 1936. Part of the Ardennes Classics, along with Liege-Bastogne-Liege. Back in the day the two races were ran in consecutive days. Now the race is organised by (of course) Amaury Sport Organisation. 

Past winners

Lance Armstrong 1996

Most wins were achieved by Marcel Kint, Eddie Merckx, Moreno Argentin and Davide Rebellin (3 each). We have (among others) Laurent Jalabert and Bernard Hinault with two wins. The mighty Lance Armstrong also won this race back in 1996. Last three winners are Philippe Gilbert, Cadel Evans and Davide Rebellin. Only Gilbert is in the 2012 race, trying to defend his crown. Another past winner in the mix is 2006 champion Alejandro 'Piti' Valverde.

Route map

Here is the link to the official route map. It's a 194 km course spiced with 10 climbs. The riders are going to tackle the infamous Mur de Huy three times. The   third time around the top of Mur de Huy will mean victory ! This climb is only 1.3 km long. But it comes after 192.7 km of riding, after 9 other climbs, it's a very narrow road and it has an average gradient of 9,3% with a maximum of 26% (!) Nothing short of hiting a wall.

2012 predictions

First order of business: Philippe Gilbert (BMC) will not be able to defend his title. That leaves only a few riders able to conquer Mur de Huy. The Spanish contingent with Alejandro Valverde (Movistar), Joaquin Rodriguez (Katusha) and Igor Anton (Euskaltel), the Italians with Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas) and Enrico Gasparotto (Astana, Amstel Gold Race 2012 winner) and the belgians with Jelle Vanendert (Lotto Belisol, 2nd in Amstel Gold Race 2012).

Other contenders include Chris Horner (RNT), Rigoberto Uran (Sky) and Bauke Mollema (Rabobank). I will keep an eye out for my dark horse Romain Bardet (AG2R): the guy had an amazing Amstel Gold Race, seems strong and eager. My podium pick looks something like this: Vanendert, Gasparotto, Rodriguez.

Live coverage -> here's a great link.

Still Watching, Still Loving Pro Cycling Despite Myself

Sometimes life just gets in the way. A relationship. A baby. A new job. An injury. Whatever it is, sometimes we are taken away from our hobbies and must be patient until we have a chance to re-engage. I am hoping that that time is now. And I still love bike racing.

We are in the heart of the spring classics season, watching amazing performances by both individuals and teams. My thoughts up to this point in the season.

Oscar Freire is timeless. The veteran Spaniard has been oh-so-close multiple times this season to winning big races, and seems as sprightly as ever on the bike. He talks about retirement at the end of this season, but it would be folly for "El Gato" to bow out now, not when he is going so well.

Let all the negative rhetoric about Tom Boonen's career cease now and forever. He is, without a doubt, the greatest cobbled classics rider of his generation. This includes Fabian Cancellara. everyone wants to say that Boonen faces inferior competition. Wrong. he is just that much better than everyone else. In 2010 Boonen suffered bad luck in almost all of the races he entered. People said he was done. How about now?

Alejandro Valverde isn't quite as good now that he isn't doping. He is still a dangerous rider though, and should be heard from before the Ardennes classics are over.

Mark Cavendish clearly has one goal for 2012 in mind: Olympic gold on home soil this summer. He'll be hard to beat, especially with the support he'll enjoy.

Did Robbie McEwen even ride the classics this year? It was said he would bow out mid-season, but it appears as though he took that decision early. He had an excellent career, but made the right decision to retire this year.

Jens Voigt needs to be more like Robbie McEwen.

Cadel Evans, although very quiet thus far in 2012, will be ready to defend at the Tour in July. He has been preparing for grand tours for a long, long time, and knows what must be done to be in top shape for a three week race. Providing he doesn't crash or get sick, he'll be on the podium at the end of this year's Tour.

If Brad Wiggins doesn't win the Tour this year, he never will.

Andy Schleck better enjoy his default 2010 Tour title, cause he is never going to win a Tour outright. Not even if Johan Bruyneel is managing him.

Good to be back writing. Hopefully I'll be able to muster additional posts in the coming days.